Manchester Derby Preview: Can Carrick’s United Upset City’s Title Charge?

The Manchester Derby is always a seismic event in the football calendar, but this edition carries extra weight. On January 17, 2026, at Old Trafford, Michael Carrick steps into the dugout as Manchester United’s interim head coach for the first time, facing off against Pep Guardiola’s formidable Manchester City side. United’s season has been a rollercoaster of underachievement, leading to Ruben Amorim’s sacking on January 5 after a dismal 38.1% win rate—the worst in the club’s Premier League history. Carrick, a club legend with five Premier League titles and a Champions League triumph during his playing days, has been tasked with steadying the ship until the season’s end. With United languishing in seventh place, a win here could ignite a revival and ease the mounting pressure on the squad and the board.

City’s Title Push and Relentless Standards

City, meanwhile, enter the fixture as title contenders, sitting second in the Premier League with 13 wins, four draws, and four losses after 21 games, boasting a +26 goal difference and 43 points—six behind leaders Arsenal. Their recent form has been solid, though not flawless, with three consecutive league draws tempered by dominant cup performances, including a 10-1 FA Cup thrashing of Exeter City and a 2-0 League Cup semi-final win over Newcastle. Guardiola’s side has rediscovered their ruthless edge, fueled by Erling Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess and new signings like Antoine Semenyo, who arrived from Bournemouth for £65 million and has already made an impact. This derby isn’t just about local bragging rights; for United, it’s a must-win to salvage pride and momentum, while City aim to keep the pressure on Arsenal.

Carrick’s Return and United’s Search for Stability

United’s turbulent campaign has seen them cycle through managers, with Amorim’s departure marking the 10th change since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement. Carrick’s appointment, confirmed on January 13, brings a sense of familiarity and stability. The 44-year-old, who briefly served as interim in 2021, impressed in his three-game stint back then, securing wins over Villarreal and Arsenal. His recent tenure at Middlesbrough, where he achieved a tenth-place finish in the Championship before parting ways, honed his tactical acumen. Carrick favors a 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing possession and midfield control—traits that echo his playing style as a composed deep-lying playmaker. He’s already met with the ownership group, to align on a vision for the remainder of the season, with Champions League qualification as a lofty but stated target.

AFCON Boost: Amad and Mbeumo Return at the Perfect Time

A glimmer of hope for United comes from the timely returns of Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo from the Africa Cup of Nations. Both players rejoined training on January 14, ending a 32-day absence since their last appearance in a 4-4 draw with Bournemouth. Amad, the 23-year-old Ivorian winger—inspired by Carrick himself—has contributed goals and assists this season, including a memorable winner in last year’s derby at the Etihad.

Mbeumo, who joined United from Brentford in the summer of 2025 for a reported fee, has formed a promising partnership with Amad on the right flank, combining for nine goals in 2025/26. Their pace, creativity, and finishing could provide the spark United desperately needs. Carrick confirmed their availability, noting their fitness levels are high post-AFCON, where Cameroon and Ivory Coast both advanced but fell short of the title.

How Carrick’s United Could Line Up

United’s squad has seen other tweaks under Carrick’s early influence. Goalkeeper Senne Lammens has emerged as the first-choice, backed by Altay Bayindir and Tom Heaton. In defense, Leny Yoro and Lisandro Martinez form a solid center-back partnership, with Diogo Dalot and Patrick Dorgu providing width. Midfield options include Manuel Ugarte, Kobbie Mainoo, and captain Bruno Fernandes, who recently returned from injury. Up front, Benjamin Sesko leads the line, supported by Matheus Cunha and the returning duo. Recent recalls from loan, like goalkeeper Elyh Harrison and forwards Joe Hugill, add depth, though veterans like Casemiro and Harry Maguire face uncertain futures amid transfer speculation.

Guardiola’s Machine: City’s Strength in Depth

City’s squad, by contrast, exudes confidence and depth. Guardiola has settled on a fluid system incorporating Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Jeremy Doku, and Haaland, who has been “at his devastating best,” breaking records and milestones. Semenyo’s arrival bolsters the attack, while defensive injuries to Josko Gvardiol (fractured tibia), Ruben Dias (up to six weeks out), and John Stones have prompted interest in Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi. Despite these setbacks, City’s backline remains resilient, and their midfield, anchored by Rodri, controls games effortlessly. Recent results show vulnerability—three straight league draws, including a 1-1 with Brighton—but their overall dominance is evident in cup routs and a strong position in the Champions League knockout stages.

Form Guide and Derby Context

What will this game deliver? We expect a high-intensity affair with tactical intrigue. United’s recent form—draws with Leeds (1-1) and Burnley (2-2), followed by a 1-2 loss to Brighton—highlights defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge. They’ve conceded in each of their last six games, but Old Trafford’s atmosphere could galvanize them. City, unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions before the Brighton draw, will look to exploit United’s transitions. However, derbies often defy form; United’s 3-0 loss at the Etihad in September was comprehensive, but Carrick’s fresh approach might change the narrative.

Key Tactical Battles to Watch

Key to United’s success will be exploiting City’s defensive injuries. With Gvardiol and Dias sidelined, United should target the flanks. Amad and Mbeumo’s speed can stretch City’s makeshift backline, potentially featuring Rico Lewis or Matheus Nunes at right-back. Pressing high to disrupt Rodri’s distribution is crucial—United’s midfield duo of Ugarte and Mainoo must win second balls and transition quickly. Fernandes’ vision can unlock Sesko, who thrives on through-balls. Defensively, Martinez’s aggression could neutralize Haaland, but United must avoid leaving spaces for Foden and Doku to exploit.

Set-Pieces, Intensity, and Fine Margins

Another area: set-pieces. City have conceded from dead balls in recent draws, while United’s height—Maguire, Yoro, Sesko—offers threat. Carrick, drawing from his Middlesbrough playbook, might emphasize compact defending and counter-attacks, using Amad’s dribbling to draw fouls. City’s possession dominance (averaging 65% this season) means United must be patient, absorbing pressure before striking. If Carrick instills belief, United can capitalize on City’s occasional complacency.

Why City Are Vulnerable — But Still Dangerous

City aren’t invincible. Their three draws cost points in the title race, and injuries have forced adaptations. Guardiola’s side thrives on control, but derbies bring chaos—United’s intensity could force errors. Haaland’s form is a concern for United; he’s scored braces in recent wins and remains City’s talisman. Yet, if Lammens produces a standout performance, United can frustrate and stay alive deep into the match.

Prediction: Goals, Chaos, and a Defining Moment?

Prediction: This could be tighter than form suggests. City’s quality edges them to a 2-1 win, but United’s home advantage and returning stars might snatch a 2-2 draw. Carrick’s debut adds unpredictability—we expect goals, drama, and perhaps a flashpoint moment in this heated rivalry.

Final Thoughts: A Turning Point for United?

In conclusion, this derby is pivotal for United’s season. A victory would alleviate pressure, boost morale, and signal Carrick’s intent. For City, three points keep them firmly in the title hunt. Whatever the outcome, it promises to be a captivating chapter in Manchester’s football saga.